Companies have slightly improved their views of their economic performance for the next 12 months, retained a positive investment outlook, but expect a moderate rise in inflation and exchange rate expectations.
The business outlook index (BOI) was 100.6%, up from 99.5% in Q2 2024.
Companies reported stronger positive expectations for total sales and for investment in machinery, equipment and tools, while softening their negative expectations for construction spending. Respondents were less upbeat about the future financial and economic standings of their companies and staff numbers.
Although weakening slightly in importance, the war and its repercussions remained the main factor that hampered companies’ ability to step up production. The impact of tax changes, the exchange rate and production costs increased noticeably.
Businesses’ macroeconomic expectations for Ukraine
Respondents returned to reporting positive expectations for the output of Ukrainian goods and services over the next 12 months, the balance of responses being 3.7%, compared to (-0.3%) in Q2 2024.
Output growth was expected by energy and water supply, agricultural, manufacturing and transport and communications companies; respondents in ten oblasts; large and medium companies; companies that are exporters only, companies that are both exporters and importers and companies that are neither exporters nor importers.
Inflation expectations worsened for the first time in eight quarters – in Q3 2024 the expected annual inflation rate for the next 12 months was 9.7%, up from 9.0% in the previous quarter. The percentage of respondents who expected that inflation would not exceed 10% was 54.4%, down from 62.8% in Q2.
A total of 81.1% of respondents continued to see ongoing hostilities as the most important inflation driver. The impact of the exchange rate and production costs was reported to have increased noticeably, by 7.1 and 4.9 pp respectively, to 75.4% and 68.5%. The impact of tax changes increased most of all, by 2.5 times, to 37.9%.
Respondents’ depreciation expectations worsened once again – the average UAH/USD exchange rate was projected to hit UAH 43.72 per USD 1 in 12 months (UAH 41.61 per USD 1 in the previous quarter). The percentage of respondents who expected that the UAH/USD exchange rate would range between UAH 42.1 and UAH 44.0 per USD 1 over the next 12 months was 44.1%.
Companies’ current standings and their business outlook
Companies were more downbeat about the current financial and economic standings of their companies, the balance of responses being (-6.0%), down from (-4.3%) in Q2.
Respondents slightly worsened their expectations of the financial and economic standings of their companies over the next 12 months, the balance of responses being (-0.9%), down from (-0.2%) in Q2 2024. More negative views were reported by respondents from mining, energy and water supply, construction, and transport and communications companies, as well as by respondents engaged in other economic activities. At the same time, trading, agricultural and manufacturing companies reported optimistic views.
Businesses continued to expect an increase in total sales, including in external sales, the balances of responses being 10.5% and 11.2% respectively, compared to 8.7% and 11.0% in Q2. Growth in total sales was expected across most sectors (apart from the mining industry), and most of all by respondents from agricultural, transport and communications and manufacturing companies, the balances of responses being 17.9%, 15.7% and 14.5% respectively. An increase in external sales was also expected by respondents across most sectors, and most of all by the agricultural and transport and communications sectors.
Respondents reported a more positive investment outlook for machinery, equipment and tools, the balance of responses being 7.5%, up from 5.4% in Q2. At the same time, respondents reported less pessimistic expectations for construction investment, the balance of responses being (-3.2%), up from (-5.5%) in Q2.
Businesses that raise foreign investment continued to report expectations of investment growth over the next 12 months, the balance of responses being 15.6%, down from 19.4% in Q2 2024. The firmest expectations were reported by construction, energy and water supply and mining companies. In contrast, trading companies expected a decrease in foreign investment over the next 12 months.
The share of respondents who plan to raise foreign investment over the next 12 months was 18.8%, down from 21.9% in the previous survey.
Respondents continued to declare intentions to cut their workforces over the next 12 months, the balance of responses being (-10.9%), compared to (-10.7%) in Q2. Negative expectations were reported by respondents across all sectors. The gloomiest expectations were reported by construction and mining companies.
Respondents expected weaker growth in wage costs per staff member, the balance of responses being 52.9%, compared to 54.8% in Q2.
The percentage of respondents who plan to take out bank loans dropped to 34.8% (down from 36.4% in Q2) on the back of a decrease in borrowing needs in the near future (to 30.4% in Q3, down from 37.7% in Q2).
Companies that intend to take out loans continue to prefer hryvnia loans – 81.9%, compared to 81.6% in Q2.
High loan rates remained the main factor deterring businesses from taking out new loans (45.5% of responses). The percentage of respondents who cited the availability of other funding sources was 40.0%, down from 41.1% in the previous survey. The impact of exchange rate fluctuations and collateral requirements increased by 4.4 pp and 3.4 pp respectively, to 32.8% and 19.7%. Lending conditions remained tight.
The percentage of respondents who intend to take out foreign loans was 8.2%, up from 7.7% in the previous quarter.
This survey was conducted from 31 July to 28 August 2024. A total of 655 companies in 21 oblasts took part in the survey (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea, as well as Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson oblasts). Of the businesses polled, 21.1% were in wholesale and retail trade, 19.1% in manufacturing, 14.5% in agriculture, 13.6% in transport and communications, 6.6% in mining, 4.7% in energy and water supplies, 3.1% in construction, and 17.4% were in other sectors; 30.2% of the respondents were large companies, 35.1% medium companies, and 34.7% small companies.
The findings presented reflect only the opinions of the respondents (top managers of companies), and should not be considered as NBU assessments.
The business outlook index is an aggregated indicator for companies’ performance expectations over the next 12 months. It is calculated on the basis of survey findings as the arithmetic mean of the balances of responses regarding companies’ financial and economic standings, total sales of their own products, investment spending on construction, and on machinery, equipment and tools, as well as regarding staff numbers. An index above 100 indicates that positive economic sentiment prevails in society, while an index below 100 shows that negative economic sentiment prevails.