Businesses Say Their Business Activity Is Unchanged on Previous Month, while Significantly Improving Their Outlook Compared to Last Year – June Business Outlook Survey

In June, companies’ performance expectations were unchanged on the previous month. Stable consumer demand, a sufficient supply of goods, a stable energy supply situation, international financial assistance, coupled with seasonal factors, positively influenced respondents’ assessments. At the same time, relentless attacks on critical facilities and infrastructure, more intense fighting, large expenses of businesses on raw materials, labor and fuel, a shortage of skilled workers, and exchange rate and inflation expectations remained constraining factors.

This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the NBU calculates on a monthly basis, apart from a forced break in March–May 2022. The BAEI was 50.0 in June 2025, down from 50.8 in May 2025, being significantly higher than the figure for May 2024 (43.6).

Trading companies had the most optimistic economic outlook, reporting positive economic expectations for four months in a row, the sector’s index being 52.0 in June, compared to 50.3 in May 2025 and 46.4 in June 2024. Respondents were more confident about an increase in trade turnover and in the amount of goods purchased for sale. Trading companies also reported less firm expectation about a drop their stocks of goods for sale. As before, respondents continued to declare intentions to cut their trade margins, albeit at a slower pace.

Industrial companies have reported a positive economic outlook for five months in a row, thanks to sustained consumer demand and a stable situation in the energy sector, the sector’s index being 50.4 in June, compared to 51.1 in May 2025 and 45.5 in June 2024. Respondents remained upbeat about the amount of manufactured goods and the number of new orders for products. Conversely, industrial companies were more downbeat about the number of exports orders. Respondents continued to expect a decrease in the amount of their unfinished products and in their stocks of raw materials and supplies. Industrial companies were slightly more pessimistic about their finished goods stocks.

Construction companies also reported a positive economic outlook, thanks to favorable weather conditions and stable domestic demand, the sector’s index being 50.4 in June, compared to 51.5 in May 2025 and 43.0 in June 2024. Respondents were more optimistic about their construction volumes, the number of new orders, and about purchases of raw materials and supplies. Respondents said they intended to purchase fewer contractor services despite weaker growth in the cost of these services. Construction companies were slightly less confident about the availability of contractors.

In contrast to the previous month, services companies reported less optimistic performance expectations amid a rise in business costs driven by higher fuel prices and a shortage of qualified staff, the sector’s index being 48.3 in June, compared to 50.9 in May 2025 and 39.7 in June 2024. Respondents expected the amount of services provided to be unchanged on the previous month. At the same time, respondents reported weaker expectations about the number of new orders for services and the amount of services that are being provided.

Surveyed industrial, trading and services companies continued to expect that purchase prices would grow at a fast pace. They also declared strong intentions to raise their selling prices. In contrast, construction companies reported expectations of weaker price growth.

Labor market conditions remained difficult. Companies across all surveyed sectors declared intentions to reduce their workforces, with the strongest intentions reported by construction companies.